According to one expert, the results of the U.S. midterms could make a massive difference in President Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada.
Dr. Asa McKercher is the research chair for Canada-U.S. relations and Associate Professor in Public Policy and Governance at St. Francis Xavier University.
He said that if Democrats take control of the house and senate like polling suggests, it could mean more checks and balances on the current U.S. administration.
“That’s relevant to us because… a lot of the tariffs are enabled by congressional legislation, things like the 232 tariffs that Donald Trump has used, it’s an act of congress that allows the president to use these things,” said McKercher. “There could be efforts to curtail a lot of the tariffs that have been applied by the Trump administration. Particularly the ones where Donald Trump wakes up one day, is angry by something he sees on TV and announces tariffs.”
He noted that many politicians, even Republicans, have begun pushing back against Trump’s unpopular tariffs. Maine’s longtime Republican Susan Collins has spoken out repeatedly against the trade war, and recently Michigan’s Republican senate candidate Mike Rogers recently ran an ad drinking a Labatt beer while calling for the end of tariffs.
McKercher said a lot of the pushback has been because of American foreign policy, like the trade war and the war in Iran, both of which have been key Trump policy decisions.
“He’s done a lot of reaping, and now it’s the sewing, and the sewing is the not very good part,” said McKercher. “It’s the f-ing around and and finding out part.
Even a fifty-fifty result, or a marginal Republican majority could mean an easier path for pushback against the president.
“Donald Trump will be a guy with two years left in office, I think that a lot of the fear that some Republicans have about his ability to tank their careers by empowering primary voters against them might be gone,” said McKercher. “So it might not be so cut and dry.”
McKercher also outlined a world where losing internal power could be a reason for Trump to lash out in an area where presidents typically have a lot more control, foreign policy.
“It’s also possible things could get even worse,” said McKercher. “There could be a lot more Trumpian focus on Canada as a result of that.”
Currently, polling shows that the Democrats are likely to win big in the upcoming midterm elections. McKercher said that although a third impeachment is a historic possibility, last time impeachment led to stronger support for Donald Trump from his party and independents, who felt he was being unfairly targeted.
“The alleged corruption in this administration is off the charts… but that (impeachment) could backfire on the Democrats” said McKercher. “I think probably what we’d see instead is an impeachment of a lot of members of the Trump cabinet.”
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Health Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnik would be at the top of the list according to McKercher.
Congressmen Shri Thanedar of Michigan has already pressed to impeach Hegseth for murder, conspiracy to murder in relation to his handling of a vessel off the coast of Venezuela in 2025, and reckless and unlawful mishandling of classified information for accidentally adding a high-ranking journalist to an encrypted Signal group chat with details surrounding an upcoming military operation.
Despite polling showing a strong election cycle being likely for Democrats, McKercher said he realizes polling isn’t always accurate, especially since some Trump voters don’t disclose to pollsters that they’re voting for him, and many are first-time voters.
He said a Republican victory is still a very real possibility.
“I don’t necessarily know if we would see more tariffs, but it could empower Donald Trump to not change course,” said McKercher.
Like many, McKercher recognized the America that Canadians know today is completely different.
“We’ve come a long way from the America of our youth,” said McKercher.
